University of Wisconsin - Madison

Polmeth XXXIV

Program

Thursday

8:00–8:40am

West Atrium

Registration and Breakfast

8:40–9:00am

Morgridge Auditorium (Room 1100)

Opening Remarks

9:00–10:20am

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Winning on the Merits: The Joint Effects of Content and Style on Debate Outcomes”
Nicholas Beauchamp, Lu Wang, Sarah Shugars and Kechen Qin
Discussant: Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Why Replications Do Not Fix the File Drawer Problem: A Model and Evidence from a Large-Scale Vignette Experiment”
Adam Berinsky, James Druckman, and Teppei Yamamoto
Discussant: Melissa Sands, UC-Merced

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Analyzing Causal Mechanisms in Survey Experiments”
Avidit Achrarya, Matthew Blackwell, and Maya Sen
Discussant: John Ahlquist, UCSD

10:20–10:40am

West Atrium

Coffee Break

10:40am–12:00pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Mapping the Partisan Media Divide with Facebook: Using Computational Methods to Measure How Congress Uses News to Communicate”
Rachel Blum and Patrick van Kessel
Discussant: Jennifer Victor, George Mason University

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Shrinkage Estimators for Causal Effects in Online Experiments”
Drew Dimmery (with Eytan Bakshy and Jasjeet Sekhon)
Discussant: Daniel Hopkins, University of Pennsylvania

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“A Direct Test for Consistency of Random Effects Models that Outperforms the Hausman Test”
Justin Esarey
Discussant: Frederick Boehmke, University of Iowa

12:00–1:30pm

West Atrium

Lunch and Poster Session
More details on the “posters” page

1:30–2:50pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“A Network Model for Dynamic Textual Communications with Applications to Government Email Corpora”
Bomin Kim, Aaron Schein, Bruce Desmarais, and Hanna Wallach
Discussant: Molly Roberts, UCSD

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“A New Class of Bayesian Frailty Models”
Jeff Gill and Jonathan Homola
Discussant: Marc Ratkovic, Princeton University

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Estimation and Testing in Two-Stage Randomized Designs”
Panos Toulis
Discussant: Teppei Yamamoto, MIT

2:50–3:10pm

West Atrium

Coffee Break
Sponsored by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center

3:10–4:30pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Understanding Social Polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives Using Variations in Pixel Intensity”
Bryce Dietrich
Discussant: Arthur Spirling, NYU

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Using a Probabilistic Model to Assist Merging of Large-Scale Administrative Records”
Ted Enamorado, Benjamin Fifield, and Kosuke Imai
Discussant: Seth Hill, UCSD

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Identifying Latent Dimensions of Attitudes on the Affordable Care Act Using Open-Ended Survey Responses”
Daniel Hopkins and William Hobbs
Discussant: Adam Bonica, Stanford University

4:30–6:00pm

West Atrium

Poster Session and Reception
More details on the “posters” page

Friday

8:00–9:00am

West Atrium

Breakfast

9:00–10:20am

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Beyond the Breaking Point? Survey Satisficing in Conjoint Experiments”
Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel Hopkins, and Teppei Yamamoto
Discussant: Adam Berinsky, MIT

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Target Selection as Variable Selection: Using the Lasso to Select Auxiliary Vectors for Survey Weighting”
Devin Caughey and Erin Hartman
Discussant: Alexander Theodoridis, UC-Merced

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“How to Measure Legislative Compactness If You Only Know It When You See It”
Aaron Kaufman, Gary King, and Mayya Komisarchik
Discussant: Rocío Titunik, University of Michigan

10:20–10:40am

West Atrium

Coffee Break

10:40am–12:00pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Out of Bounds? Testing for Long Run Relationships under Uncertainty Over Univariate Dynamics”
Clayton Webb, Suzanna Linn, and Matthew Lebo
Discussant: John Freeman, University of Minnesota

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Why Do We Still Estimate Linear Models and Should We Move On (to Highly Non-Parametric Models)?”
Nathaniel Beck
Discussant: Matthew Blackwell, Harvard University

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Ideas, Words, and the Ratification Debates”
John Londregan
Discussant: Nicholas Beauchamp, Northeastern University

12:00–1:30pm

Morgridge Auditorium (Room 1100)

Lunch and Keynote
Remarks by Doug Bates, Department of Statisics, University of Wisconsin–Madison
Presentation available here

1:30–2:50pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Generalized Full Matching”
Fredrik Sävje, Michael Higgins, and Jasjeet Sekhon
Discussant: Kosuke Imai, Princeton University

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“The Fingerprints of Fraud: Evidence from Mexico’s 1988 Presidential Election”
Francisco Cantú
Discussant: Jacob Montgomery, Washington University

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Text Preprocessing for Unsupervised Learning: Why It Matters, When It Misleads, and What to Do about It”
Arthur Spirling and Matthew Denny
Discussant: Brandon Stewart, Princeton University

2:50–3:10pm

West Atrium

Coffee Break
Sponsored by Springer

3:10–4:30pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Inferential Approaches for Network Analysis: AMEN for Latent Factor Models”
Shahryar Minhas, Peter Hoff, and Michael Ward
Discussant: Robert Franzese, University of Michigan

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates”
Rocío Titiunik
Discussant: Justin Esarey, Rice University

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Developments in Positive Empirical Models of Election Frauds”
Diogo Ferrari and Walter Mebane
Discussant: Marc Meredith, University of Pennsylvania

4:30–6:00pm

Open Court, Discovery Building

Poster Session and Reception
More details on the “posters” page

6:00–8:30pm

DeLuca Forum, Discovery Building

Dinner

Saturday

8:00–9:00am

West Atrium

Breakfast

9:00–10:20am

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“Designing Surveys to Account for Endogeneous Non-Response”
Michael Bailey
Discussant: Erin Hartman, UCLA

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“How to Make Causal Inferences Using Texts”
Naoki Egami, Christian Fong, Justin Grimmer, Margaret Roberts, and Brandon Stewart
Discussant: Alex Tahk, University of Wisconsin

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“Hierarchical Item Response Models for Analyzing Public Opinion”
Xiang Zhou
Discussant: Jonathan Kropko, University of Virginia

10:20–10:40am

West Atrium

Coffee Break

10:40am–12:00pm

Room 1100 (Morgridge Auditorium)

“One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections”
Marc Meredith
Discussant: Robert Erikson, Columbia University

Room 2080 (Nicholas Lecture Hall)

“Causal Inference through the Method of Direct Estimation”
Marc Ratkovic and Dustin Tingley
Discussant: Jake Bowers, University of Illinois

Room 2120 (Kellner Lecture Hall)

“About Time: Cross Sectional Dynamic Heterogeneity in TSCS Data”
Clayton Webb and Joe Weinberg
Discussant: Nathaniel Beck, NYU